Why ESPN's Projections Could Leave Canadiens Fans Cautious About Noah Dobson

While there's no doubt that the tall defenseman will bring much-needed stability to the Canadiens' blue line, his offensive production could take a hit. Every year, the same scenario repeats itself: Fantasy hockey players get excited as soon as a new player joins the Montreal Canadiens.

Emotion often outweighs a cold analysis of the statistics, leading many participants to overvalue the true worth of certain players in their draft. This season, Noah Dobson may very well be the newest victim of this phenomenon.

Arriving in Montreal after a trade, the 25-year-old defenseman still carries some prestige thanks to his previous seasons in New York, where he once hit the 70-point mark.

However, his performance dropped sharply last year: only 39 points in 71 games. His -16 plus/minus rating and reduced production on the power play (12 points, half of what he had the year before) confirm that he is going through a difficult period.

For 2026, ESPN's projections remain modest: 43 points, 13 on the power play, and steady usage of around 23 minutes per game. Respectable numbers, certainly, but not the kind that make him an elite defenseman worth targeting early in a pool.

One of the main obstacles to his offensive rebound is Lane Hutson. A recent Rookie of the Year winner, Hutson has already established himself as the undisputed quarterback of Montreal's top power play unit.

That's why caution is needed. Dobson remains a young, well-rounded defenseman, but his current situation doesn't make him a premium option in a hockey pool. The trap is drafting him too high simply because he wears a Canadiens jersey.

Montreal fans are often guilty of favoritism toward local players or those on the Montreal team, forgetting that pools are won with statistics, not with the heart.

In summary, Dobson doesn't lack talent, but the conditions aren't there for him to have an elite-caliber season. In your pools, it's better to see him as a secondary option on defense rather than rely on him as the cornerstone of your roster.